The Silent Climate Hazard: How Data-Driven Policy Can Reverse Africa’s Air Quality Decline
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The Silent Climate Hazard: How Data-Driven Policy Can Reverse Africa’s Air Quality Decline
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June 2025
Each year, more than 8 million people die prematurely due to air pollution. This is a staggering global toll that remains largely absent from the frontlines of climate discourse. While much of the attention at climate summits rightly focuses on carbon emissions and clean energy transitions, air quality, especially in Africa’s rapidly growing cities, remains an under-discussed, under-prioritised challenge.
Across countries like Ghana, Nigeria, Cameroon and Botswana, where more than 50% of the population now lives in urban or peri-urban areas, the drivers of air pollution are growing more complex. Cities are expanding, transport emissions are rising, open waste burning continues, and policy enforcement remains weak. The result is a worrying trajectory, one that is already reflected in the data.
According to the ACE Africa Sustainability Index*, Cameroon scores 4.8, Nigeria scores just 6.18 out of 100 on air quality performance. Ghana follows at 9.61, and Botswana at 13.73. These scores are not just low, they point to a systemic gap in environmental regulation, public health protection, and urban planning.
The Real-World Costs
Air pollution is no longer a distant risk—it is already the second-leading cause of death in many African regions. Its impacts are far-reaching: studies link chronic exposure to lower birth weights, respiratory infections, and childhood stunting—conditions that compromise long-term health and productivity of Africa’s young demographic.
In Nigeria, over 200,000 deaths were attributed to air pollution in 2021 alone. In 2019, at least 161,000 stemmed from household air pollution, underscoring that the crisis is not only industrial, but also domestic—rooted in biomass use and poor ventilation. Yet the country’s air quality monitoring remains fragmented, under-resourced and largely private or citizen-led, limiting timely policy responses.
Ghana faces a similarly stark picture. Air pollution accounts for 8% of all annual deaths and costs the economy approximately $2.5 billion, or 4.2% of GDP, each year. However, most air quality monitoring is concentrated in Accra, leaving large parts of the country without visibility into pollution levels or exposure risks.
In Botswana, more than 1,000 deaths have been linked to household air pollution, but the country lacks a permanent, government-operated monitoring network. Existing data largely stems from short-term research studies, with no system to track trends, inform interventions, or support funding proposals.
These figures highlight a broader structural gap: without comprehensive, real-time monitoring, governments are unable to identify pollution sources, assess policy effectiveness, or prioritise responses. What cannot be measured cannot be managed—making it difficult to link pollution with health outcomes or justify resource allocation. Ultimately, poor air quality is as much a development challenge and as the continent urbanises rapidly, this challenge will only grow. Addressing it requires not just cleaner technologies, but stronger data systems and institutional capacity to translate information into action.
Data-Led Urban Resilience: What North Africa and Mauritius Reveal
Despite the challenges facing many African nations, the link between urbanisation and deteriorating air quality is not inevitable. Countries like Algeria, Tunisia, and Mauritius, which share similar urbanisation profiles with peers such as Ghana and Nigeria, demonstrate that strategic investments in data infrastructure, institutional coordination, and policy enforcement can drive measurable improvements. With urbanisation rates of 75% and 70%, Algeria and Tunisia have achieved ACE Africa Index scores of 64.76 and 73.68, respectively—significantly outperforming countries with comparable growth pressures. Both have established robust air quality monitoring systems, enforced emissions standards, and integrated air quality objectives into urban transport and land-use planning. Importantly, their ability to collect, verify, and publicly share environmental data has enhanced their credibility in the eyes of international funders, enabling greater access to climate and development financing.
Mauritius, with a continent-leading ACE score of 90.62, exemplifies how transparent, data-driven environmental governance can unlock outsized returns even in resource-constrained contexts. By institutionalising monitoring and reporting mechanisms, Mauritius has not only improved domestic policy responsiveness but also positioned itself more competitively to mobilise climate adaptation finance and donor support. These examples reveal a critical insight: air quality improvement is less about income level and more about data capability and institutional intent. Countries that can track and verify their environmental performance are better placed to enforce standards, design adaptive policies, and crucially, make a compelling case for funding. In a context where development finance is increasingly results-based, robust monitoring is both a policy tool and a financial asset.
Way Forward
Despite proven models from countries like Algeria, Tunisia, and Mauritius, data-informed air quality governance remains the exception across much of Africa. Currently, only 24 of 54 African countries operate any air quality monitoring systems, with even fewer tracking key pollutants like PM₂.₅ or nitrogen dioxide. Just 30% are legally required to monitor air quality, and only 18% mandate public access to that data. Without consistent and transparent tracking, it becomes difficult to identify pollution sources, assess policy impacts, or prioritise interventions. This governance gap is further compounded by financing disparities—between 2015 and 2021, donor governments allocated 36 times more funding to fossil fuel-related projects than to air pollution control across the continent. Yet, this also presents a strategic opportunity: by directing resources toward capacity building, institutional strengthening, and data system integration, African governments and their partners can close the air quality gap and localise what is already working. Priorities should include expanding monitoring networks in urban centres, building accessible public data platforms, embedding enforceable air quality regulation into city planning, and linking air pollution targets to climate adaptation finance. Crucially, this means adapting the principles behind success stories like Mauritius and Tunisia, where strong data systems have enabled long-term environmental accountability. Their success underscores the value of regulation, data, and planning—tools that Africa’s urban centres must prioritise to reverse worsening air quality trends.
* Reach out to Botho Emerging Markets Group (Contact: saniya@botholtd) to know more about the ACE Africa Sustainability Index. The index is yet to be made public.